By: Todd Wheatley
(c) IQ-2k   11-24-17

The last stock market correction took place in August 2015 and the start of the bull run in February 2016. Yesterday the market hit another all-time high (23,590) and left the media to speculate on how this run will end. Yet even more than HOW is WHEN ... barring any unknown shocks from now until spring the correction should hit in March as it did in 2000 given the seasonal nature of investor activity. The holiday season typically has very light volume and any gyrations are typically written off. It is only after the winter winds begin to warm that investors take heed of geopolitics and the macro-economic environment. Again barring any earth shattering event.

As much of a shock as Y2k was hyped to become there was no sell off in December of 1999 and the market carrier ever upward until March. A similar pattern seems to be emerging with a strong economy and ever growing employment rolls pouring money into 401k retirement plans. Although this time devoid of the wild speculation brought on by the emerging internet. Hence the market looks ripe for a correction rather than a year 2000 type crash. AH BUT WAIT ...

Current geopolitics indicates crash rather than correction. Since the Trump balloon will pop like the Hindenburg. Whatever business acumen the president may have had in the private sector is not translating to government and once the myth has been shattered it will likely cause the market to flame out rather than correct quietly. The market wants certainty not the end of net neutrality, not the end of decades long trade deals, not the political chaos that is sure to come in 2018 primary season starts in March, by the way.

At the very least you might want to "TAKE PROFITS" and sell those transport stocks I recommended. While I did not make a home run it was a solid double. More importantly you should take note that the P/E ratios have skyrocketed to over 20 !! SELL NOW and prepare to sit on the side for at least six months.


(c) 2017    DR-KNOW
IQ-2k Information Services


TOP     HOME
articles     podcasts     videos

Information eQuation (BOOK)
Information eQuation (examples)

EMAIL COMMENTS to DR-KNOW

Please support this web site: give any amount via PAYPAL ("money TRANSFER") to todd@dr-know.biz